The state party memo says roughly 151,000 Democrats cast primary ballots, tens of thousands more than the state projected.
Less than a day after polls closed, the New Hampshire Democratic Party circulated an internal memo declaring that Democrats are “united and ready to win big in November” and claiming that Tuesday’s primary turnout “dramatically outpaced the Secretary of State’s projection.”
The two-page memo, obtained by The Granite Post, reads as a roadmap for the next eight weeks: protect the state’s all-Democratic congressional delegation, beat Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), and flip the Executive Council and the State House.
The headline number is turnout. According to the memo, “roughly 151,215 Democrats” cast ballots “with 98 percent of the vote counted, more than 30,000 above the state’s forecast.”
The plan is to ride that turnout into November while running one line of attack against both Republicans at the top of the ticket: that Sununu and Ayotte are “in lockstep with Donald Trump’s costly and chaotic agenda that’s slashing health care and making life more expensive for Granite State families and small businesses.”
The memo casts Sununu as “a rubber stamp for more of Trump’s failed policies” and brands the governor “Costly Kelly,” arguing that “everything has gotten more expensive under Ayotte, from health care to electricity and housing costs.”
Secretary of State Dave Scanlan projected turnout of 248,000 voters on Sept. 3 just days ahead of the primary: roughly 145,000 Republicans and 103,000 Democrats, or about 28%of the state’s 888,000 registered voters. Scanlan based the split on party registration and past elections, and Republicans have traditionally voted in state primaries at higher rates than Democrats.
He expected turnout to land close to the 2022 primary, when 27.7%of registered voters showed up. “It is going to be a strong, normal turnout,” he told the Union Leader. “I’m not anticipating that we’re going to break records this time.”
If the memo’s count holds up, the Democratic total would land about 48,000 votes above Scanlan’s forecast. It would also put Democratic turnout well above the number Scanlan expected from Republicans.
The Republican side of the ledger is the part the memo leaves out. With 97% of the vote counted, the New Hampshire Bulletin tallied 150,684 ballots in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary and 106,779 in the Republican one.
Democrats made up 58.5% of Tuesday’s primary voters. Scanlan had projected that Republicans would make up 58.6%, and their turnout came in roughly 39,000 votes below his forecast.
The memo casts the turnout as a sign that Democrats are “on pace to match the kind of enthusiasm that powered victories across the board in 2018.”
That year, Democratic primary turnout far exceeded then-Secretary of State Bill Gardner’s projection, and the roughly 228,000 ballots cast set a September primary record that stood until the 2020 pandemic-era primary, when 156,976 Democrats and 147,695 Republicans voted under expanded absentee rules.
The memo describes the party as “united behind a slate of proven fighters.” US Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic nomination for US Senate by roughly 30 points over Exeter scientist and activist Karishma Manzur.
Former Sen. John E. Sununu beat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown by more than 40 points on the Republican side. In the 1st Congressional District, Stefany Shaheen edged Maura Sullivan, 37.2%to 34.9%, and will face Anthony DiLorenzo, who won the Republican primary after President Donald Trump endorsed him early in the race. In the 2nd District, US Rep. Maggie Goodlander will face Lily Tang Williams, who lost to Goodlander in 2024 with 47% of the vote.
Ayotte beat two challengers for the Republican nomination for governor. Former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington was unopposed in the Democratic primary. The memo says Democrats “turned out in droves to nominate Cinde Warmington,” though hers was the only name on the Democratic ballot for governor.
The one Democrat who has not signed on to the memo’s unity message is the candidate who lost the Democratic Senate primary by a large margin.
Manzur did not endorse Pappas Tuesday night. In a statement reported by the Concord Monitor, she said: “In order for Chris Pappas to win this seat, he must earn the support of the voters who chose our campaign tonight. We have to work together to defeat the Republican establishment in the general election, but we also have to unite to change the direction of the Democratic Party.”
Brown, by contrast, endorsed Sununu on the spot. “You fight hard and if you come up short, you close ranks,” he said.
The day before the primary, California Rep. Ro Khanna, a top progressive leader in Congress, told The Granite Post that Democrats have to “come together after tomorrow night and make sure we beat Sununu. That’s critical.”
The memo calls Sununu “Trump’s handpicked candidate,” a reference to Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” over Brown, who had served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand. It says “over $30 million was already being spent to prop up” Sununu before “Trump’s PAC invested nearly $10 million into New Hampshire on Election Day,” citing a New York Times report on MAGA Inc., the super PAC (political action committee) aligned with the president.
The memo also quotes Sununu calling the Senate race “important to President Trump’s agenda” and telling voters “we need to protect [Trump’s] gains,” linking to two short video clips.
Sununu himself has said little about that backing. NHPR noted that he “has largely avoided talking about Trump’s backing.” The Granite Post has reported on Sununu’s stock portfolio, the lobbyist money behind his comeback, his support for public funding of Trump’s White House ballroom, and his denials after his name surfaced in the Epstein files.
The memo says Ayotte ‘is facing some of the worst approval ratings of any first-term New Hampshire governor in 30+ years.’
The memo’s broad argument is that “everything has gotten more expensive under Ayotte, from health care to electricity and housing costs,” and that Ayotte is “far better at enabling Trump’s chaotic and costly agenda than standing up to it.”
The party published a companion post making the same case on its website Wednesday.
