President Donald Trump’s popularity in New Hampshire has sunk to its lowest point in nearly a decade, and the timing could hardly be worse for the Republican who endorsed him: Gov. Kelly Ayotte.
A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Monday found just 38% of New Hampshire residents approve of the job Trump is doing, against 62% who disapprove—a net rating of -24, down from -14 in February, before the U.S. attacked Iran.
It’s his worst job approval reading in the state since October 2017. His handling of foreign affairs fell to 35% approval (65% disapprove), the lowest mark of either of his terms.
The Iran war is the anchor dragging him down. Nearly two-thirds of Granite Staters—62%—say the decision to go to war with Iran was wrong, and 63% oppose restarting military strikes if the current 60-day negotiating window collapses. Only 34% of residents think the country is headed in the right direction.
Most telling for 2026: the erosion is reaching into Trump’s own base. Republican approval of the president dropped to 85%, down from 94% in February. Independents—the voters who decide statewide races in New Hampshire—have all but abandoned him, with just 12% approving.
That is the environment Ayotte must run in. She filed for a second term in early June, and Democrats are working to turn November’s election into a referendum on Trump and the Republicans who backed him. Ayotte is an inviting target.
After withdrawing her support for Trump in 2016, Ayotte formally endorsed him again in 2024, and has never walked that endorsement back.
Her likely Democratic opponent, Cinde Warmington, has accused the governor of marching in “lockstep” with the president, faulting her for not pushing back as the administration cut food and housing money.
Ayotte’s recent behavior suggests she knows the liability is real.
She offered no public acknowledgment when Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. visited the State House in late May, and when this reporter asked at her filing whether she still stands by her Trump endorsement, a staffer attempted to shout the question down with a sharp “Colin, no!” before the governor moved on.
State strategists agree the connection between Trump and Ayotte could be a liability.
“Donald Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ has delivered nothing but higher costs and uncertainty for small businesses and working families across New Hampshire—and Kelly Ayotte has enabled every step of it,” said Aaron Jacobs, a senior New Hampshire political strategist and campaign manager to top federal races in the state.
“It’s no wonder Ayotte has racked up the worst approval ratings of any first-term New Hampshire governor in more than 30 years. Turns out siding with Trump over New Hampshire isn’t a winning strategy.”
The state Democratic Party moved fast to hang the numbers on the governor. In a statement Monday headlined “Alarm Bells Going Off at Ayotte HQ,” the New Hampshire Democratic Party faulted her silence for leaving Granite Staters to pay the price. “Remember when Kelly Ayotte said Donald Trump was the ‘right choice’ for the country?” said NHDP spokesperson Marissa Hebert.
“That ‘right choice’ has meant higher costs and economic pain for working families. She’s stood by silent as Trump wreaks havoc on New Hampshire’s economy, and Granite Staters won’t forget that this November.”
