Informed Analysis: NH Dems campaign skills and historic trends give reason to keep hope alive

One week later, New Hampshire Democrats obviously aren’t celebrating after last Tuesday’s presidential election put the felon Donald Trump on track to return to the oval office, igniting a wave of racist texts and “Your Body, My Choice” pro-rape harrassment from all corners of the country.

No doubt, the result of last Tuesday’s election came as a surprise to both Democrats and Republicans across the state. But with a closer look at the numbers, historic trends offer insight into past red wave elections and where the party could go from here.

The New Hampshire governor’s race was, despite going to Kelly Ayotte, still the closest governor’s race in the country. Ayotte won by 10% — a large margin, for sure, but still less than the next closest margin, which according to AP was 12 points (shared by Washington State and Delaware).

And unlike many competitive purple states, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, New Hampshire did not lose any of its congressional seats, reelecting Chris Pappas and electing Maggie Goodlander.

And of course, Kamala Harris won her contest against Donald Trump in the state.

Democrats did lose seats in state legislative races, driven by Trump voters showing up for the top-of-the-ticket race. State Senate Democrats lost two seats, and are now in a super-minority, owing in part to the severe gerrymandering by Republicans.

State House Democrats are still in the minority, now holding 178 seats total. Not good! But, a vast improvement from where the caucus was as recently as 2010 when they held just 102 seats.

These losses could have been even more dramatic without the work of in-state groups like AmplifyNH, which spent a record $300K+ on issue ads ahead of the election, as well as investments from outside groups like the Democratic Governors Association, whose record investment in the New Hampshire governor’s race may not have yielded their preferred candidate, but likely had a positive impact on the race down ballot.

Then there was the turnout operation. Advocacy groups reported record numbers of doors knocked this year, and the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign opening 18 field offices represented the culmination of over a decade of work honing a programmatic campaign methodology. 

This indelible body of campaign work and spending — while simply not able to overcome a wave year opposition push — still likely helped preserve seats in the House, keep Democrats in control of federal offices, won the campaign for Harris in the state, and honed the skills of a new generation of campaign professionals in the Democratic Party.

Having this infrastructure in place and functioning should give Democrats cause to remain optimistic, but if that is not enough, let’s dig deeper and look at other wave election years. More specifically, let’s look at what happened here in New Hampshire just after a wave election put Republicans in power.

1994: Gingrich red wave year; 1996: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen elected governor

2002: Red wave year, 2004: Democrat John Lynch elected governor

2010: Red wave year, 2012: Democrat Maggie Hassan elected governor, Democrats take both congressional seats and majorities on Executive Council and in the Statehouse, winning over 100 seats

2016: Red wave/Trump elected, 2018: Democrats take control of Executive Council, State Senate, State House

If past is precedent, there is cause to have hope for change coming sooner than later.