Democrats gain ground in NH, new Saint Anselm poll shows

Democrats are gaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterms, a new poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center revealed.

The poll, released March 23, found Democrats lead the generic ballot 49% to 41%, up four points from November. That increase is likely due to concerns over the economy and foreign policy: 59% of voters surveyed oppose the recent military action in Iran, and a slight plurality now trust Democrats over Republicans on economic and affordability issues.

“War and economic uncertainty are creating headwinds for Republicans in New Hampshire, putting Congressman Chris Pappas in a stronger position than in our previous survey,” said Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, in a statement.

The poll found Pappas leads both of his potential Republican challengers, former New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, in hypothetical matchups for Senate. Rep. Maggie Goodlander, D-NH, also “restored her lead” against 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams.

Democrats also have more enthusiasm: 96% are “extremely likely” to vote in the midterm elections, compared to 88% of Republicans.

Despite the rise in support for Democrats, Gov. Kelly Ayotte still has a slight positive approval rating and beats her potential opponents in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. And President Donald Trump’s approval rating has remained largely unchanged.

The poll surveyed 1,491 New Hampshire registered voters online from March 16 to 18. The margin of error is +/-2.5%.

What is Kelly Ayotte’s approval rating?

The poll found Ayotte’s approval rating was 49%, with 47% disapproval. Her net approval is slightly down from November, when she was at 49% to 43%.

However, she still polls ahead of her two Democratic challengers for governor. Ayotte leads former executive councilor Cinde Warmington 46% to 39% and former Newmarket restaurant owner Jon Kiper 45% to 31%.

In the Democratic primary, Warmington leads Kiper 40% to 13%.

What is Donald Trump’s approval rating?

Forty-two percent of New Hampshire voters approve of Trump’s performance, the poll found, while 58% disapprove.

The same split is found on his favorability: 42% find Trump favorable, while 58% find him unfavorable.

This is largely unchanged from November, when he was at 57% disapproval and 57% unfavorable.

Buttigieg overtakes Newsom, Rubio gains support in 2028 primary polls

As presidential hopefuls continue to visit the early primary state, the Saint Anselm poll found some shakeups in an early look at the 2028 presidential primaries.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigeig, who finished second in the state in 2020, is an early favorite with 29% support from Democratic voters. At 15%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has fallen back, the poll says, and he is followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%) and former Vice President Kamala Harris (6%).

While Vice President J.D. Vance remains the top choice on the Republican side with 46%, his support has fallen from 57% in November while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has risen in the ranks.

“Rubio has tripled his support from 9% to 27%, and must now be considered a significant potential challenger to Vance,” the poll says.

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: Democrats gain ground in NH, new St. Anselm poll shows. Reporting by Margie Cullen