Sullivan overtakes Shaheen in back-to-back polls ahead of Sept. 8 primary

Two polls released in the past week put the Marine Corps veteran narrowly ahead of the longtime frontrunner for the first time, with both leads inside the margin of error and less than two weeks to go. For the first time since the race began, Maura Sullivan leads Stefany Shaheen in the contest for the…

Colin Booth

August 27, 2026

Maura Sullivan has moved ahead of Stefany Shaheen in the two most recent polls of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, the first surveys to put her on top since the race began, though both pollsters call the contest a statistical tie ahead of the September 8 primary.

For the first time since the race began, Maura Sullivan leads Stefany Shaheen in the contest for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, according to two polls released over the past week.

Both surveys show a race that is extremely close, but Shaheen, who had led every public poll for more than a year, is no longer out front with the Sept. 8 primary less than two weeks away.

A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll conducted Aug. 17 and 18 found Sullivan at 26% and Shaheen at 24%, with Hampton Select Board Chair Carleigh Beriont at 12%, state Rep. Heath Howard at 7%, and Christian Urrutia at 3%. The Democratic primary subsample carried a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

A University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center poll released Aug. 26 showed a similar picture: Sullivan at 24%, Shaheen at 19%, Beriont at 11%, Howard at 10%, Urrutia at 4%, and 29% of likely Democratic primary voters still undecided.

The UNH survey found moderates tending toward Sullivan, liberals toward Shaheen, and progressives split across the field. After the poll wrapped, Howard withdrew from the race and endorsed Beriont, a move that could consolidate progressive support behind the Hampton selectwoman in the closing days.

Sullivan, a Marine Corps veteran who served as assistant secretary of Veterans Affairs in the Obama administration and now serves as vice chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, has outraised Shaheen $3.3 million to $2.2 million in a race Shaheen entered as the presumed frontrunner. Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and the daughter of retiring US Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, has locked down much of the party’s institutional support, including endorsements from former Gov. John Lynch, NEA-New Hampshire, and Teamsters Local 633.

The winner will face the survivor of the Republican primary between Anthony DiLorenzo and Hollie Noveletsky in a district Democrats have held since 2018, when Chris Pappas first won the seat he is now leaving to run for US Senate.

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